Holiday Spending Forecasts Point to One Winner: Value

You already know what time of year it is. Pumpkin-everything will soon give way to gingerbread and peppermint, and grocers are getting ready to advertise the lowest prices on festive season favorites.

Shoppers are making their lists, comparing prices, revising their lists, and using an LLM to check it twice. This peak season looks familiar in some ways: Costs are up, consumers are value-conscious yet resilient, and the big question is whether growth will outpace inflation.

It is also different, because AI’s role in holiday shopping has moved well beyond experimentation. Two in five shoppers plan to use gen AI for holiday shopping this year, and one in two expect it to influence 50% or more of their holiday spend, according to Accenture.

Against that make-or-break AI backdrop, let’s take a closer look at how the holidays are expected to unfold, based on forecasts from Bain, NRF, Accenture and PwC.

Bain: 2026 European Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain expects the UK to lead European holiday sales growth this year, at 3.5%. Inflation rather than volume accounts for most of that gain. Growth will be more restrained in France (2.5%) and Germany (2.0%). Across the region, negative financial pressures are outweighing favorable conditions, but the desire to feel festive will underpin modest sales growth.

• UK. Rising unemployment and fewer job openings are heightening worries about job security and keeping consumer confidence subdued. If the recently announced autumn budget helps address the cost-of-living crisis, it could lift peak season spending.
• France. Inflation is picking up again from a low base, and rising unemployment is squeezing purchasing power. French households, however, are holding high savings. After a cautious year, shoppers may be ready to indulge this season, particularly on groceries.
• Germany. Consumer confidence remains low, but purchasing power is a bright spot. Wages are rising faster than inflation, boosting disposable income. The real test is whether shoppers will put that extra money toward seasonal purchases.

Bain notes that across all three markets, price sensitivity is extremely high. Retailers that can demonstrate value will earn the trust of increasingly skeptical shoppers.

NRF: 2026 Winter Holiday Spending Highlights

NRF predicts U.S. retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, to a total of $1.013 trillion. Last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, to $972 billion. The forecast is not adjusted for inflation, so part of that growth reflects higher prices rather than more purchases.

Similar to the European sentiment shared above, the focus for U.S. consumers is on value.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”

Interestingly, the NRF found that while online shopping remains the most popular holiday shopping channel, its popularity has eased from its peak as consumers look to balance convenience with the experience of holiday shopping in stores. At 53%, the share of holiday shoppers planning to purchase gifts and other holiday items online is the lowest since 2015.

Accenture: Holiday Shopping 2026 and PwC: Holiday Outlook 2026

Accenture has a bullish view of AI’s role in holiday shopping. In Accenture’s words, “Shoppers no longer want AI simply to recommend gifts. They are ready for agents to understand the recipient, choose the right gift, and decide where to buy it and how much to spend on it on their behalf.”

That was a markedly different take than what other firms were saying, including PwC, which concluded: “AI is a shopping helper, not a habit yet. Twenty-nine percent of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping this year, up from 22% last year, pointing to growing adoption, but hardly a takeover. The technology is just settling into a clear role: research assistant, price comparer and budget helper.”

While Accenture’s and PwC’s stances differ on how much consumers will allow AI to take the reins, these firms are aligned on the importance of delivering value.

PwC found that eight in 10 consumers plan to adopt a budgeting strategy this season, and 79% say deals and discounts influence when they shop.

Meanwhile, Accenture emphasized that retailers not only need to worry about what consumers think about their prices — they need to win over agents as well.

“In an agent-mediated world, value is what an agent can verify across the path of purchase. Accurate pricing, transparent promotion mechanics, structured quality signals and provable availability shape agent decision-making. Retailers that make value clear at every checkpoint will give agents a consistent reason to return.”

While holiday forecasts vary by market and by firm, one finding applies everywhere: The retailers that deliver the best price and perceived value will win this peak season and secure customer loyalty well beyond it.

To learn how Revionics helps retailers earn consumer trust in a dynamic market where any pricing missteps can damage both margin and price perception, view our eBook Pricing in the Pressure Zone: A Retailer's Guide to the New Cost-of-Living Crisis.